For Immediate Release: August 26, 2026
Contact: R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard
Phone: 406-252-2516; r-calfusa@r-calfusa.com
Please find below R-CALF USA’s weekly opinion/commentary that discusses the anomalous changes that have occurred along the entire beef supply chain over the past 3.5 years. It is in three formats: written, audio and video. Anyone is welcome to use it for broadcasting or reporting.
Beef Supply Chain Succumbing to Record Imports, Yet More Is Expected
Commentary by Bill Bullard, CEO, R-CALF USA
For many years, R-CALF USA has been a lone voice within the cattle and beef industries warning that unmanaged imports were dismantling the domestic beef supply chain’s competitive infrastructure. That imports are taking a serious toll on our domestic beef supply chain is now manifest.
Import volumes hit an all-time record high in 2023 and new record highs have been made each year since. For 2026, the USDA is forecasting another record-breaking year, estimating that beef imports alone, not including the beef produced from imported live cattle, will be 6.1B pounds.
Now let’s add the 300,000 MT of additional beef the president wants to invite into the United States by lifting the over-quota tariff, the equivalent of over 661M pounds. This increases the 2026 import forecast to about 6.8B pounds.
Let’s look at this from two perspectives: First, 6.8B pounds of imported beef is more than twice the total volume of beef imported just four years ago, in 2022. Second, last year domestic beef production was 26B pounds, and that includes approximately 850M pounds of beef produced from foreign cattle. The estimated 6.8B pounds of imports represent more than one-fourth of last year’s domestic beef production.
So, with record import volumes since 2023 and the 2026 import forecast at more than double the volume of just four years ago and representing one-fourth of production, we would expect substantive changes to occur within the entire beef supply chain to reflect an elevated emphasis on import purchasing, processing and marketing, and a marked deemphasis on domestic cattle purchasing, domestic cattle slaughter, domestic beef processing and domestic beef marketing.
Indeed, significant infrastructure-related changes are already unfolding, and in a big way. Two of the Big 4 beef packers have permanently closed three of their plants, another plant cut its second shift, and another is for sale. The plant closures and plant sale involve plants well outside the Big 4’s central anchor area, so the industry is retreating from outlying areas and becoming even more centralized. These actions suggest that the largest packers are reconfiguring their business models to emphasize a greater reliance on imports and deemphasize their historical reliance on domestic slaughter.
The CME Group recently acknowledged that supply chains are changing in the face of increased imports, though it describes that change as slow. Yet another significant change is that fed cattle are being fed much longer, as currently there is a record-high number of cattle that have been on feed for 180 days or more. The additional tonnage created by today’s unprecedented carcass weights means more production with fewer head slaughtered. This practice, along with the supply chain’s increasing reliance on imports further interferes with supply signals that should have triggered herd expansion.
It is the cow/calf sector of the live cattle industry that must initiate herd expansion, after all, that’s where the breeding cows are that produce the annual calf crop. Cow/calf operations typically have two main revenue sources: sale of calves and sale of cull cows and bulls. Their major source of revenue is from the sale of calves, but industry literature indicates that sales of cull beef cows and bulls typically represent about 15% of the cow/calf operation’s total annual revenues.
Current profitability and expected future profitability are prerequisites to making the investment for herd expansion. So, let’s look at how the president’s proposal to import an additional 661M pounds of “product for ground beef” with no over-quota tariff might impact a cow/calf producer’s profitability.
What the president means by “product for ground beef” is 90% lean beef trim, or 90s. This is the same type of product that is produced by domestic cull cows and bulls. A typical domestic cull cow will produce roughly 400 pounds of this 90s product. Now, the additional 661M pounds of imported 90s over 90 days will be the live cattle equivalent of about 1.6M domestic cull cows and bulls. This imported product is expected to arrive frozen and be stored frozen to be used over time.
In 2025, the U.S. slaughtered a total of about 2.8M cull beef cows and bulls. Importing the 90s live cattle equivalent of about 1.6M more cull beef cows and bulls will increase the virtual supply of U.S. beef cull cows and bulls by about 57%.
Now a question for cow/calf producers: What do you think will happen to the 15% of your operation’s revenues earned from the sale of cull beef cows and bulls if the virtual supply of U.S. beef cull cows and bulls increases by 57%? Is this an incentive to begin investing to expand your herds, or, do you think it will further delay meaningful expansion of the U.S. cow herd?
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R-CALF USA’s weekly opinion/commentary educates and informs both consumers and producers about timely issues important to the U.S. cattle and sheep industries and rural America.
Ranchers Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America (R-CALF USA) is the largest producer-only trade association in the United States. It is a national, nonprofit organization dedicated to ensuring the continued profitability and viability of the U.S. cattle and sheep industries. For more information, visit www.r-calfusa.com or call 406-252-2516.